'Make In India' - Are We Ready?

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Last year general election of India was a game changer in the history of Indian politics as it signaled the change in the attitude of the people to take charge of their responsibility in changing the government they wanted. It has been almost a year since Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed office with ambitious plans of making India globally competitive. Modi in his maiden term announced a series of policies that could all together change the scene of India on the global stage and lay back the story of the country’s high growth. One of the highly acclaimed and applauded policies is the Make In India. Does this initiative can really mean something for India or would it just go back in the papers as a mere slogan would depend upon the course of actions taken by the government.

When Modi launched the Make In India campaign the country was upbeat about the project particularly the industry and business group. This is because of the timing of the project. The campaign was launched at a time when the Indian economy is undergoing economic stress of low growth. The industry for a long time has been worried over low demand and reduced consumer spending because of persistent Inflation and poor external prospects. Apart from all the excitement and hullabaloo surrounding the ambitious project one has to carefully look at the situation we are in at present. In India there is a general notion that every government proposes laudable policies to attract media and public attention but none have the clarity about its feasibility and implementation. Will Make In India be a practical reality or a distant dream?

It is always easy to lampoon a government initiative than to understand its implications on the economy. However, before implementing such a big project that is said to have a large scale impact on the economy one has to check the ground reality and the constraints facing the success of the project. If the government blindly goes by talking about the project and promoting the idea of Make In India on global tours it would become just another marketing gimmick.

Much of the growth of India is accelerated by services and its exports. Manufacturing contributes only 15 percent to India’s GDP whereas services contribute to 57 percent. However, in the recent years we see that India also have the potential to become a manufacturing hub and Make In India is exactly trying to tap that potential. Soon after the announcement of the initiative, many companies such as Airbus, spice and UK’s BP plc have expressed their interest and commitment in making the dream project a success. Considering this, there is great enthusiasm and support for the project among the industry but it is imperative for the government to look at the challenges and remove the hurdles in making India truly a global manufacturing hub.

There are quite a lot of hurdles on the domestic front that need to be immediately rectified. Governance is a crucial factor in making any economic policy a great success and it is a serious issue in India. India is plagued by corruption and it is deep rooted in the Indian politics since time immemorial. Corruption is a kind of tax that disrupts economic activity and lowers the prospects for investment. How can India lure foreign companies to carry their production activities here when its own manufacturing sector is in a pathetic state looking for some revival? The first step would be to make the domestic manufacturing sector organized and flourish production activities smoothly without any hindrance. In general many studies have pointed out that investments move from capital rich to another capital rich country. So unless and until India strengthens its own manufacturing sector by going an extra mile in encouraging public and private investments it is quite difficult to attract investments from abroad and even if it does it is not sustainable.

India has not been using the technology advancement optimally to its advantage. Despite high IT and telecom services exports that is extensively built on high end sophisticated technology India still hasn’t grown tech savvy. One important factor that improves production and manufacturing is investment in R&D. For various reasons India is reluctant to show any sign of investing in R&D. Surprisingly there are Indian corporate without any R&D wing at all. E governance has taken shape in India, but it still requires efficiency and accountability. When everything from starting a business to lodging a complaint is done virtually it saves less time and get the things done more efficiently.

India ranks relatively low on the ease of doing business index compared to other emerging nations. According to the latest World Bank report India is ranked at 142 among 189 nations on the ease of doing business. However, the initiatives taken by the new government is promising and is expected to make India business and investment friendly. It is said that it takes 28 days to start a business in India. The average number of procedures in starting a business in India is 12 whereas it is 7 in other South Asian economies. Hence there is much to be done on the clearances and the process of starting a business. Infrastructure is another major problem in India.  Manufacturing and production activities usually concentrate on areas where there is good infrastructure and logistics facilities. India’s infrastructure is not all that developed and supportive in ease of business transaction. Many infrastructure projects are waiting for clearances because of lack of investments. So there is big push needed to improve the infrastructure of the country. It is good to see that the Modi government has committed all the way towards achieving this goal. Another serious problem facing the country is acute power shortage and energy crisis. Electricity availability is one of the critical factors for manufacturing. We are in a nascent stage of developing a more robust and sustainable energy system.

 

The dream project is said to boast itself in making India a powerhouse of manufacturing leading to job creation. It is highly uncertain if the first objective could be met considering all the domestic and external issues but the second objective of creating jobs is highly certain and possible. Before that government needs to clear all the roadblocks concerning the success of the project. Finally, on a concluding note, with all the positives regarding the Make In India initiative a fundamental question is necessary to be raised and is critical in understanding the whole idea about the business initiative. Why Make In India? Why not Make For India as termed by RBI governor Raghuram Rajan? It is true that India has taken inspiration from other emerging Asian economies on export led growth but this growth model is now being questioned by many economists and policymakers. China’s export led growth is now having negative implications on its economy.  India has to understand that it is all the way different from that of china. Replicating the same type of export incentive and import substitution growth could lead to negative effects on the economy in the present global economic scenario where the developed countries have sluggish demand and is still on the middle stages of recovery. Raghuram Rajan have also expressed his concern and cautioned about the ramifications of the program. As of now what India truly needs to concentrate is on creating a conducive environment for domestic manufacturing sector to flourish by encouraging investments, implementing the much talked about GST, easing regulations for business to take off, enhancing infrastructure, investing on skill development that could automatically result in job creation and increase the purchasing power prime minister is talking about. If all this is done and the roadblocks are removed only then Make In India can happen as envisaged.

The Path Towards Inclusive Growth

The New Millennium Growth Story

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The 21^st century begun by seeing growth on a positive note on the event of a series of economic catastrophe that preceded the last decade of the 20^th century like the Asian financial crisis and the dot com burst in USA. Until then growth was the primary goal of the developed countries and many other developing countries. On the other hand there were some third countries that was struck in between growth and development as they were nowhere between the two. Since then international organizations like UNO and OECD have started to explore other pressing issues confronting the world. The 2000 UN millennium summit was an indicative of the shift from the standard growth which redefined growth by targeting a set of goals known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to be achieved by 2015.

The developed countries took a key lesson from this and the developing nations deep dived into actionable policy making to achieve the target within the timeframe. As the name indicates, most of these goals are development oriented. The key take away from the event was a change in focus from growth to development. This is when the concept of inclusive growth became popular as many economists across the world started to accept that it is the inclusive growth that one has to concentrate on the long run. It is a known fact that, that there exists a short run tradeoff between growth and sustainable development. Other growth concepts that are of prime interest to the present day economists are inclusive and sustainable growth both of which are of long term interest.

Comparison with China

Though the concept of inclusive growth has gained global attention it is more relevant to the emerging nations than the developed nations as there are seen wide disparities in the economic outcomes in the case of former. Considering China a tough competitor to India and with which we often compare ourselves on various grounds is also showing some great affinity towards inclusive growth in the past decade. China has transformed itself has a leading industrialized hub of the Asia Pacific region with export oriented growth in the past three decade. China managed to reduce its poverty sharply compared to India which declined steeply to 12 percent in 2012 from 84 percent three decade ago. The number of people living in absolute poverty line has fallen from 99 million in 2012 to 82.5 million in 2013. It has shown huge scope for inclusive growth in the areas of infrastructure, labor market and agricultural technology.  Social protection system is much stronger in China than India.  The recent policy measure to reduce the number of car ownership in major cities is a good sign of inclusive growth. With more such structural reforms on the ground, China is targeting inclusive growth more efficiently.

The Indian Picture

Taking the Indian picture, it is all the more different. India is a growing population of 1.2 billion people and is likely to overtake China’s population by 2030. With this India will be the highest populated country in the world. Though India has witnessed rapid economic growth over the last two decade, there is high inequality and disparities in many of the social outcomes like quality health and education. This suggests that the growth is not that inclusive as desired. The health indicators are far worse than anything else. Almost one in three children is malnourished from India.  While the literacy rate has increased from 64.8 percent in 2001 to 74.04 percent in 2013, it is still lower compared to the global standard. India ranks 131 on HDI among the medium development countries. Poverty in India has declined to 22.9 percent in 2012 from 68 percent three decade ago. Still India accounts for the highest number of slum dwellers with largest slum in the business centered city of Mumbai.  Still many people do not get access to food and go to bed hungry with around 3000 children dying every day making it is as the hunger capital. The unemployment rate is at 8.8 percent which is very high compared to its other Asian counterparts. The ginni index, a measure of income inequality also suggest the gap between the rich and poor in India is rising. Many economists in the past have pointed out that the only way to tackle inequality is through inclusiveness.  The high growth octane in India is characterized by industrialization and this has led to stagnant agricultural productivity leaving many farmers deprived. All this do not suggest that India is opposed to inclusive growth as it has been embracing inclusive growth since the last decade with sophisticated infrastructure and notable public welfare schemes. These statistics just reiterate that India should plan its policy and adopt fiscal reforms in terms of inclusive growth. Economic policy is not just about promoting economic growth but also to make sure that the fruits of the growth are shared equally by every section of the society in a fair and just manner.

The Need for a Paradigm Shift

Towards this there is a need for big bang reforms that nurtures inclusive growth while Indian policymakers are highly skeptical about the right reforms for the right people. Most of the reforms that are proposed in the past lack the decisive objectives and clarity. Take for instance the controversial Food Security Act proposed by the opposition in 2009; though it was intended to target the vulnerable section of the society to reduce poverty, it did not have strong principals and methods to identify the right people who are eligible for the subsidy. Other programs such as NREGA and the recent Direct Benefit Transfer were also criticized on similar grounds.  In India, subsidies are mainly used to garner votes and put heavy burden on the government's budgets causing fiscal imbalance. Taking lessons from developed countries and our fast growing neighboring countries like China and Singapore can make India truly become inclusive. Instead of promoting subsidies and other populist measures India needs to invest heavily on health, education, skill development and infrastructure to move on the path towards inclusive growth. India as we know is a land of cultural diversity and it is not only the culture and languages that are different but also the social and economic outcomes. Needless to say, there are high variations within the states on many of the development indicators. Hence there is a call for unlocking the fiscal space right from the state level as there is a need for increasing intervention by the state governments to rightly implement policies that promotes inclusive growth. 

Market risks and uncertainty poses great threat to the economic growth in the short run. Business cycle characterized by recession and depression will occur and hence growth is bound to fluctuate. So what one has to concentrate is on inclusive growth. Though some economists argue that inequality always exist no matter what, it may be acceptable on the grounds of income distribution but not in social outcomes as no one is denied or can be excluded from social development. Inclusive growth can happen only when there is rapid growth. So Indian policymakers should not forget the two sides of the coin as to promote growth first and then simultaneously target inclusive growth.  India being a developing country, which is on the forefront of developing nations, should highly target inclusive growth for sustainable development. Modi is a great follower of Inclusive economics and Inclusive governance. So with Modi on the lead we can expect that India targets inclusive growth for a wholesome shared economic prosperity.

“The worst form of inequality is to make unequal things equal” - Aristotle

The Need For Healthcare Analytics - Application of Predictive Analytics in Pharmocokinetics

Healthcare industry is in its infancy in analytics. The industry requires large data mining techniques considering the increasing need and use of data for effective and reliable medical treatment. Western countries unlike India and other third world countries have already ventured into application of data analytics in this field primarily due to the growing medical ailments that mandate strong groundwork research not only in areas of medicine but also know the various relation between drug and the patient’s exposure to it, which requires huge amount information and data about history of patient, age, time of injection and a lot more related factors.

Data analytics in healthcare research is still in the nascent stage in India and there is increasing need for analytics in healthcare and pharmaceutical as each day there is some kind of new virus that infects a person. On an average 220 million people are affected with some sort of virus around the world. Though the standard of living of the people has greatly improved over the last decade, improper lifestyle attitudes and external factors have made the human body more prone to various virus that results in a wide range of diseases. For example, in India two in ten were affected with cancer ten years ago but now there is growing number of cancer cases where eight in ten are affected with cancer. This kind of increasing ratio is also seen in many other medical conditions. Hence incorporating valid statistical method into the healthcare research would provide path breaking results and outcomes that would greatly benefit not only the stakeholders in these industries but the general public as well.

Towards this pharmacokinetics a branch of pharmacology and the related field of study, pharmacodynamics along with relevant statistical models is highly helpful in understanding about the drug effects and enhancement of effective therapeutic treatment to individually understand the reaction of drug among varied audience. Incorporating models that deal with the kinetic and dynamic nature of the drug and the body would show us many results that would greatly help us to understand many relationships which would be of great advantage to the pharmaceutical companies and clinicians to develop drugs of low cost that would efficiently target and cure diseases.

There is quite a lot of information that we can infer from such models and data. One such popular data mining application that is of great use to healthcare and pharmaceutical industry is predictive analytics. It is an area of data mining that extracts information from data and uses it to predict trends and behaviour patterns. As a result of positive impact, predictive analytics in pharmaceutical and healthcare industry is becoming more intense.  Perhaps, pharmaceutical companies can have a competitive advantage by applying data analysis as it is the industry that has great scope for new product development. Some of the notable uses of predictive analytics in pharmaceutical industry are:

• ·         Reduce cost of manufacturing
• ·         Know the right market segmentation
• ·         Increase profits
• ·         Reduce the time of bringing in new drug to the market
• ·         Understand the needs of the client better to avoid withdrawals of drugs
• ·         Improve supply chain management

Uses in healthcare industry:

• ·        Better patient care
• ·         Better hospitality management
• ·         Improved medical treatment
• ·         Better understanding about chronic medical condition

Predictive analytics also help clinical pharmacokinetics that effectively monitor and manage better therapeutic treatment by reducing the adverse effects of the drug. Basically, the core of predictive analytics is to find a relation between the explanatory variable and predicted variables of the past to identify future outcomes. Hence data analysis helps clinicians and healthcare professionals to come up with better drugs for a wide range of diseases.

The compartmental and non compartmental models are used in understanding the kinetics and dynamic process of drug in a patient’s body and provide a whole lot of useful facts and metrics such as bioavailability, bioequivalence etc. Once you get hold of the relevance of data analysis it is really fascinating to see how predictive analytics can actually transform the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries.

General Election Part - II Who will win the race?

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This is a continuation to my previous post on “The Fall of the UPA II government”.  My last article was about the probable chances of losing of the current UPA government. In this article I would like to discuss about the other dominating opponents of the congress in the run up for the general election 2014 that is scheduled to be held from April 7^th to May 16^th in nine phases and in all 543 constituencies of India. This is the 16^th Lok Sabha election and the country is expected to see a huge number of new voters particularly the youth that is estimated to be around 2.3 crore voting this year for the first time. Election is a time when the people of the country wait to see a new beginning with the same hope to see some change.  As an aspiring economist I know how important a government is to any nation. Ask any economist he would immediately support for some sort of government intervention in the market to bring about efficiency than completely following the laizez faire system where there is minimum or no government intervention at all. So choosing a proper government (which has become a difficult and complex decision in India) is as important as choosing a proper teacher for learning and trainer for building good physique.

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In central till last year the most dominating parties were the Indian National Congress (INC) and Bharathya Janata Party (BJP). Since independence these were the two parties that ruled the country with both parties being formed by legendry political leaders. But this year India has a new promising and energetic party on ground called Aam Aadmi formed by social activist Aravind kejriwal and his team of educated vibrant leaders forming a strong foothold in the capital city on the wake of continuing crimes and corruption in the country. There are quite a lot of other parties in India that are equally contesting in the election but going by the opinion poll results and the voice of the nation it is seen as these three are the most competing parties in forming the government. So let me restrict myself in discussing about the other two parties BJP and AAM AADMI here.

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Looking at the equal rival of the congress, the BJP led NDA has a higher chances of winning the election this year with NAMO Modi as the desired prime ministerial candidate. India always goes by giving a chance to potential leaders and in that aspect as the chance given by the people of India to congress was not all that satisfactory, this time people are planning to give that chance to Modi seeing the development made in Gujarat during his tenure as its chief minister. The Gujarat development model is the key and campaigning strategy chosen by the leader in contesting for the general election. Gujarat has seen a rapid economic growth and development in the last eight years from being a simple agrarian state to an industrialized hub. So when it comes to votes from industrial heads and gurus I think BJP will gain in this election game. The voice of youth also expresses their support for Namo Modi that is seen as the greatest advantage of BJP. All this is fine, but looking at the miserable state of the politics inside the party shows there is continuous chaos and disagreement among the notable members of the party which highlights the inefficiency and unstable nature of the BJP. As the election approaches near, the campaigns gets more bitter and personal with politicians targeting each other in the most disgusting manner.

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Aam Aadmi is another new equal rival for the both experienced BJP and congress. When Aam Aadmi came to power in the New Delhi state election last December the entire nation felt a sense of new beginning. A beginning of new hope giving way for transparent politics that would address the various social concerns of the nation. Though Aam Aadmi is new and has been criticized for its lack of experience and knowledge about the economy and politics it does really have a better scope and chance in this election though not a higher chances of winning than its counterpart BJP. For Aam Aadmi it is seen as this election would surely throw the voice of people for its support in coming to the power if not for this time atleast for the next time. Meanwhile, it would also be a good opportunity and feedback to the party of young educated socially concerned leaders to gain the necessary knowledge and experience in tacking the dirty politics played in India for several long years. A section of the society who are socially concerned and depressed by the growing crimes and illegal activities in the country strongly support for the Aam Aadmi. A great number of youth and senior citizens are in this group to vote for Aam Aadmi.

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As a politically neutral individual I personally don’t follow politics and I am not interested in the way the politics is played in India. To be frank and honest I also have the courage to say that I am not going to vote to any party this year instead  willing to cast my vote against 49-O. Most of you may abuse and criticize me for not taking interest in voting being a responsible citizen of India. For all those I have only one answer, if any elected government live up to the expectation of the entire nation and truly serve the country without indulging in anything that disturbs the public in every aspect and by looking at people’s problems as their own, then with my whole heart I will vote for the deserving party. Ever since I became independent and learned the role of government I haven’t seen any such deserving party or candidate so far. Now you people may also wonder then why on earth did I write an article about politics and election. Though I may not be inclined towards voting, I did feel to write a post on the most awaited event of the nation as I am socially aware and concerned citizen of India who believes that good governance is very much essential and important to grow as a prosperous nation free from all social evils. But the sad part in India is the government itself has been a reason for all the social dangers instead of protecting us from it. A last note: Let us hope that atleast this year a true and deserving party forms the government at central to bring about a revolutionary change and belief in the way Indian politics works.

General Election Part -I The Fall Of The UPA II Government

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It is election time again! It is that time of the year when promises made, achievements glorified, slashing opposition criticism, entrusting belief in forming the government and more importantly thinking about the people for the one time in five years. The congress led UPA government has made a strong presence in the last ten years by consecutively winning for the second time in 2009 as people did believe at that time that it can only be the UPA government led by economist turned politician Dr. Manmohan Singh that can save the country when the world was into the great recession. That faith in a government can’t be made so easily in a country like India as the UPA I forming the government in 2003 did perform well to the people’s expectation in addressing their concern to some extent. The question to be asked now is did they really live upto the expectations the second time? Did they use the second chance to their best? Finally, do they have a chance to win the election again this year?

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Before giving the answer as a straight NO, let me justify myself by providing you a picture with facts to support my opinion, that it is very difficult for the congress to come back to power again this year. First, talking about the people of India, these political parties should know that they are not the same say some twenty years back. The citizens of India have grown from being lame by following one single party to a more concerned and responsible citizens with deeper understanding of the politics and the power of their vote that could change anything. So keeping this in mind it is high time that the national parties change their strategy of playing politics so badly as people are watching their every move particularly the youth – the next generation.

It is no longer sensible in embracing the past achievements and glorifying something good that was made possible years back. As with every individual in any profession one has to constantly improve one’s performance every day to prove one’s mettle to survive.  This aspect is highly important and relevant in politics too as it is the profession that is working for the entire nation. The congress has to understand this and stop highlighting the achievements made in distant past while campaigning for votes. Naturally, people particularly, during election time remember the recent political pay off while casting their votes. According to behavioral economics, during elections, people also sometimes tend to behave irrationally leading to a voting behavior known as Herding according to which people vote for a particular candidate not because he is the best but because he is the most popular. It is an electoral voting behavior that makes a person vote for someone just because his friends and relatives have voted for the same candidate. Considering this, the UPA II government has a very grim situation in winning the election this time.

The UPA II took power in 2009 the second time at a crucial period in the world economic history when the global economy was hit by the financial crisis. The Indian economy was performing somewhat decently and managed to sail through the crisis initially by the policy action taken by the government by providing fiscal stimulus packages but later most of the policies of the government backfired and the economy started to survive by the measures taken by the monetary authority - The RBI. When the global economy was hit by the housing bubble that led to recession and default of major European states everything seemed to turn around as the two superpower economies have plunged into debt trap. The situation in the emerging markets was good till late 2011 and the market watchers praised the emerging economies in surviving the crisis but that was only till early 2012. The situation in India also started to turn bad and the economy started to face a series of problems both in terms of domestic and international.

The stimulus package that was injected to save the economy from getting into deep trouble was helping but it led to a more serious problem called inflation which is now the primary macroeconomic concern of the central bank and the government as well. The huge stimulus and unplanned expenditure is one of the primary reasons for the present inflationary pressure and fiscal deficit. The financial market witnessed many surprising swings. The Nifty and Sensex started with a historic note as the stocks of the emerging markets performed well and showed some positive sign while developed nations were struggling with default and debt repayment. All was well in the financial market till 2010 but since then the Nifty plunged to a drastic low and many stocks started to underperform. The Indian economy was able to achieve a high growth rate of 8.5% and 10.5% in 2009 and 2010 respectively but since then the growth prospects also declined and thus the growth rate fell to 6.3% in 2011 and decade low of 5% in 2012. The estimated growth rate for the year 2013-14 is also below 5 percent. As a result of weak growth prospects and business sentiment, the banks in India, particularly the public sector banks are sitting on a big chunk of bad loans (loans that are been unpaid by the companies for a longer period of time) and also started to go insolvent. The issue of Non Performing Assets (NPA) is one the biggest challenge facing the banking sector. This is when the Indian economy started to face the dose of global crisis. The UPA II government also did not mutually work with the monetary authority at a time when the economy was under serious stress out of global crisis and always expressed its discomfort in whatever policies taken by the RBI.

Next, since mid 2012 the Indian economy started to face international problems such as depreciating rupee and widening CAD. The year 2013 saw rupee touching its all time low and ballooning CAD as result of higher gold imports and low exports. However, the congress did take some measurable steps in containing the CAD but the fiscal deficit still remains high beyond the target. Stalling many investment and business projects is something not good for a developing country like India. The congress seems to have ignored this fact and justifies itself as it is on the path of fiscal consolidation which is very lame.  Spending funds on projects such as Food Security Bill and schemes such as NREGA that lacks clear objectives and delaying infrastructure projects and discouraging business proposal that supports economic growth is seen as a politics played without clear economic knowledge after years of experience with economists Manmohan singh and Chidambaram at its helm. The World Bank recently released its report on “Doing Business in India” in which India fell to 134^th position from 131^st position last year. India has also been ranked lower at 179 in terms of ease of starting a business. All this shows that UPA II was not supportive of growth.

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Coming to the dominant strategy of congress in its second term, it is presently caught in a web of corruption and scandals. It all started with the most popular 2G spectrum which involved congress politicians and government officials illegally undercharging mobile companies for frequency allocation licenses which they would then use to create 2G subscriptions for cell phones. The congress was later involved in a series of scams such as Adarsh housing scam, Bofors scandal, cash for vote scandal, commonwealth games scam, Dial scam, Housing scam, Indian coal allocation scam, Mining scam and Tatra scam. The congress uprightly and allegedly ignored the Jan Lokpal Bill introduced by Anna Hazare in demanding the appointment of an independent body to investigate corruption cases.

Congress considered as a pro farmer alliance did not really help the farmers of India. Inspite of strong opposition from both the farmers side and social activists it allowed 51% FDI in multi brand retail making entry for the establishment of the U.S retail giant Wal-Mart. It was only during the UPA II term there were increasing number of suicides and agitation among the farmers.  More than 17,500 farmers committed suicide between 2002 and 2006. In the year 2012 alone 13,754 farmers committed and attempted suicides. However, it was only during the same UPA period poverty was reduced by 15 percent in the last eight years which is to be noted. The landmark schemes such as National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) and Food Security Bill all lacked clear and decisive objectives and has failed to achieve the desired objective of serving the poor. Looking at the safety of the country, the UPA government has failed to score on this point too. India witnessed the worst terror attacks during congress period from 26/11 Mumbai terror attack to the recent Hyderabad bomb blasts. The women of India are worst affected victims of crimes caused domestically. The tragic Nirbaya case is still in the memories of every single Indian seeking for change in the law and order and in providing safety measures to all the women out there to make them feel secure.

Now, looking at the presence of congress in the inter regions and states of India, there too the UPA government has a very little chance of winning except Kerala in south. According to the poll result, though the congress have some foot hold in northern states such as Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal but it doesn't have any down in states such as Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. In the last Tamil Nadu state election the AIADMK won by massive votes that completely washed away the opponent DMK a close alliance of congress which was also primarily because of corruption and policy inefficiencies. The congress continuously made a habit of ignoring the voices made from southern states that is of both state and national interest. Adding to that, the recent division of Telegana state highlights the fact that congress is on the move to divide the country than to unite. The vote of Indian Muslims is also a key determinant in Indian politics and so going by their side, the UPA will hardly get any votes from them. The recent agitation and anger of a Muslim against the present prime minister in a meeting is evident to this fact.  A look at the election opinion poll results will tell us about what the country is thinking about UPA II government.

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By looking back at all the events happened in the last five years the minus dominates the plus for the congress. Every move from the budget to the freebies highlights the inefficiencies of the UPA II government. Choosing Rahul Gandhi as its next prime ministerial candidate is one of the worst decision made by the UPA. Following social media such as facebook and twitter shows there is hardly any support for the congress to the decision of Rahul as the desired candidate for the prime minister. The internet has made Rahul a laughing stock by throwing videos and funny jokes on him.  Manmohan Singh a man of great caliber has been merely used as watch guard by Sonia Gandhi. Policy paralysis of the present government to all the present ills that India is facing will be the driving factor in this general election while voting. The UPA II scores negative almost in every side from industry to financial sector to the general public. It is the time for the UPA dynasty to fall to make way for a new fresh government to hopefully take India out of a deep shit!

CAD - The Government's Battle Over Deficit And Financing

The Real Picture:

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Since the 2008 financial crisis the global economy has been undergoing a serious turmoil that has deepened the crisis, delaying the recovery process. Initially, it was the developed countries that was hit badly by the crisis and showed poor signs of recovery but in the last one year it is the emerging markets that are struggling with various problems arising out of weak global economic outlook and domestic pressures.

As a result of increasing integration with the global economy India’s external sector has been under pressure, especially in the last two years. The news about India’s high current account deficit has been making rounds since the third quarter of last fiscal that touched a record high 6.7% of GDP. It was a steep increase from the second quarter of last fiscal which stood at 5.4% of GDP. This pressed the alarming button in the Indian market, since then, for which the policymakers have been reacting vigilantly in controlling it from moving further higher.

The Target:

Current Account Deficit is the difference in the imports and exports of a country. It is seen as India by making space for liberalized economic environment by allowing free international trade has also opened room for continuous trade deficit due to higher imports and lower exports. Finance minister P. Chidambaram has quoted saying that a CAD for one or two years is fine but a high CAD year after year is a serious problem as financing it will be difficult. Apart from financing, a higher CAD also puts pressure on rupee that is tumbling beyond 60/$ since March which in turn worsens the CAD. Though the CAD narrowed down to 3.6% of GDP in Q4 last fiscal, it stood at a historic high total $80 billion or 4.8% of GDP in 2012-13.

Adding to the woes, the announcement of US withdrawing its quantitative easing has also made India’s external sector vulnerable to global uncertainties. This called for immediate action and concern over the burgeoning CAD since March 2013, by finance minister setting the target of bringing the CAD to 3 percent of GDP in the current financial year which is within the RBI expectation of 2- 3% that is seen as the normal range. A series of measures has hence been taken to achieve the target. Let us now look at the measures taken, its impact and the trend of CAD.

The Trend:

Higher gold imports is often blamed as the sole reason for the ballooning CAD, however by seeing the data carefully over the course of time one can see that gold is not the only culprit for the widening CAD. India has also been importing huge petroleum and crude oil as it is facing with energy and petroleum crisis in the last three years. India’s coal imports to meet the growing demand for electricity has been doubling adding to the dismal fact that India has one of the largest coal reserves, accounting to 7 percent of the world’s total. Petroleum and Crude oil is a component under the sensitive items category which rose by 65.5% in last financial year from $154967 million to $169319 million from the previous year, registering highest percentage growth among the imports of all sensitive items. Gold Imports, however, rose in the last three years on account of persistent inflation, global uncertainties and absence of attractive alternative domestic investment avenues. Indians see gold high in terms of traditional value than as an investment. The imports of gold accounted to $56319 US million to $53694 US million y-o-y. According to the WGC report, the demand for gold is slowly shifting from India to china in 2013 thus leading India as top consumer on gold import front.

The Measures:

Image Courtesy: The Times of India, Google

Though the numbers have been showing all together a different picture where even other essential commodities have been contributing to the burden of India’s continuing CAD, gold imports is on the spotlight and is of much interest to the policymakers criticism as they see higher gold imports cannot be accepted on the wake of continuing high CAD. So the best they thought they could do is to contain the CAD by reducing the imports of gold which has been contributing a larger share on CAD. To this, the government along with the central bank introduced a series of measures to restrict gold by imposing some curbs.

A brief timeline of the measures and its impact are here: In January the government raised the import duty of gold from 4%to 6% and doubled the duty on raw gold to 5%. The RBI in February relaxed the rules on gold deposit schemes offered by banks and tightened the gold loans offered by the NBFCs. On March, RBI expressed its views on monitoring the banks that sell gold coins to identify systemic issues. The gold imports stood at 16.4 billion in the January – March period. On April the government introduced Inflation Indexed Bonds as an alternative to gold. The RBI restricted import of gold on a consignment basis by banks in May. On June the government raised the import duty to 8% and the jeweler’s association asked its members to stop selling gold bars and coins about 35% of their business followed by voluntary ban on sales in July. The gold imports saw a steep decline to $3.9 billion in the first quarter of 2013-14. The government raised the import duty third time to 10 % in august. The introduction of the 80:20 scheme by the RBI in august was effective in controlling the gold imports sharply according to which it is mandatory for all banks and other nominated agencies to retain at least one fifth of the total gold import which is exclusively made available for the purpose of exports. The government raised the tariff value of gold to $442/ 10gm in October. Since then the RBI also periodically restricted banks from buying gold coins and bars. The total volume demand of gold in 2013 grew at 13 percent and a meager 3 percent in value terms as a result of the curbs imposed by the fiscal and monetary authorities.

Interim Budget Reaction:

Since the curbs were effective as it is seen as reducing the gold imports thereby helping in containing the CAD that fell to $5.2 billion or 1.2% of GDP in the July- September quarter from 4.9 percent in the first quarter, the market was expecting a change from the interim budget presented last month. The gems and jewelry trade leaders were requesting the government to ease the curbs imposed on gold imports on the wake of increasing smuggling and low business sentiment.  As a consequence of high import duty on gold, this encouraged smuggling of around 500kg daily estimating an illegal import of Rs 54,000 crores annually.

Though finance minister was cautious of the CAD numbers and hinted at not reducing the duty on gold and is following the wait and watch approach, sellers were expecting something out of budget but left disappointed. There was a mixed response to the budget but overall budget is seemed to be one that is targeted on reviving growth. Since the demand for gold is not only based on import duties and other restrictive measures, the government could have eased the import duty to 8% from 10% as exports have started to pick up and imports showing a declining trend. The merchandise exports are expected to rise at $326 billion in this financial year, indicating a growth rate of 6.3 percent. The CAD sharply fell to $4.2 billion or 0.9 percent of the GDP in the Q3 of the current financial year. If at all the demand for gold rises as expected by many causing worry by easing the curbs, it would not rise all of a sudden as the demand for gold is influenced by whole lot of other factors such as price, seasonal factors, investor sentiment etc and the number would thus be contained causing not much panic. The budget, seen as the last one of the UPA– II government seems to have no other choice than making some room for growth to kick start as the IIP numbers across various sectors are showing poor results and there has been some noise from the industry for quite some time as RBI is also reluctant to cut interest rate on its fight against inflation.

Financing the CAD:

The hardest part is financing the CAD and thereby seeking solution to one of the most pressing problem. The government already runs a high fiscal deficit leaving pressure for the next government to be hard pressed. The market is expected to set high aspirations after the general election which is seen as crucial in addressing the various problems India is facing. So where does the real solution to controlling the CAD lies?  The solution lies in boosting exports and encouraging foreign investment through FDI and FII towards which the government is doing its best and the results are fruitful and are seen reaping the benefits. Mobilizing gold from the general public to meet the domestic demand could help in controlling the CAD. The problem is seen tolerable only till when we are able to finance the CAD without drawing from our foreign reserves. Until the rupee appreciates and falls below 60/$, inflation is contained and growth gains momentum it is anticipated that the government will continue its tight macroeconomic policy stance in controlling the CAD.

Thinking Beyond GDP - Measuring India's Progress

Image Courtesy: AU Blog

Ever since the world got aware of industrial revolution and the meaning of growth as a meager indicator of just economic well being, we are only in the process of enhancing the economic development ignoring the other side of growth, the social development. GDP is the standard measure of economic growth and India has been able to achieve a high GDP of 9 percent and an average of 8.7 percent on the back of wide ranging structural reforms over the last decade. Inspite of the rapid growth, India still lags behind many other developing nations on various key indicators on the global scale.GDP measures the economic value of goods and services produced and consumed and do not take into account the environment cost that has been incurred in the process. Considering the above factor, India needs an altogether different metric to measure its real progress apart from the media and political obsessed GDP which has failed to measure the actual progress of the country. Though this has called for different metrics to measure the progress of a nation, developing a single unique metric that would tell us about all the key indicators like quality of life, HDI, poverty levels, Ginni coefficient, mortality rate, gender inequality, employment, environment sustainability, etc is difficult and has a lot of challenges. This is why policymakers argue that they need a single number to measure and compare the growth of all countries and GDP alone facilitates the purpose. However, this article is one of those many attempts to pursue the quest to get beyond GDP with special reference to India.

The robust industrial development apparently accompanied by massive technological advancement followed by rapid economic growth has resulted in more destruction than the benefits that we initially imagined of establishing by growing the seeds of industrial revolution. There are various economic and natural catastrophe we have witnessed in the past to support the above mentioned fact which we tend to ignore and continue to indulge in the process of making the same mistakes by not learning a lesson from it. The hard truth of our ignorance is that the ramifications are just going to be severe than what we have experienced so far.

Image Courtesy: The Hindu, Google

It is known that India is one of the fast growing nations of Asia, next to china which is considered as its biggest competitor. Though china and India are part of the same continent both the countries has a lot of economic, political and social differences. So comparing India with china to measure the progress of India doesn't make sense and by doing so, will not give a true picture about India’s progress. Considering that India is a vast country with a growing population of 1.2 million people, an indicator that measures the development of its human resources which is considered as India’s key asset would be a wise choice for measuring its progress. One of the several factors contributing to the development of an emerging nation like India is education and few international studies on developing countries reveal that there is a strong relation between education and economic development.

Image Courtesy: www.youthconnectmag.com

Education has always played a significant role in the growth of Indian economy but the same system has also failed to achieve the desired results. The Indian education system for a long time has undergone serious criticism. The education here is mainly based on just teacher-student interaction in classroom and rote learning. However, it is good to see that this has been changing over time. The primary and secondary education in India has grown significantly both in terms of numbers and standard but the tertiary education in India is in a pathetic situation. The tertiary education is not given its due importance and it is evident as none of the Indian universities are ranked even among the top 200 global universities. This is basically because of the lack of quality teachers, poor infrastructure and refined coursework. The literacy rate is 74% of which male and female literacy is 82.14% and 65.46% respectively. This also highlights gender inequality and India’s male chauvinism. Another fact to highlight the situation, the OECD for international student assessment program ranked India 72 out of 73 on global educational survey.  Lack of enough funding by the government is also one of the primary reasons of the poor education system. The government expenditure on education in the last budget was Rs. 65,869 crore which is very low compared to global standards.

A proper and efficient planning for improving education can work wonders for India’s progress as India constitute more number of young population with big dreams  waiting to unleash their potential. It is high time we stop saying children’s are the building blocks of India’s future and start building a bright future for each and every children from all economic backgrounds for as they shape the fate of India. Good education is the only mean by which we can measure real progress and thereby economic and sustainable development. We need to lay out certain ideas and changes in policy that would pave way for a holistic education environment.

• ·         The Right to Education Act should be made a mandatory one and more aware to each and everyone particularly to the weaker economic section
• ·         Providing and improving the necessary quality infrastructural facilities that would inspire students to pursue their education here and for overall development of education system
• ·         Increasing support by the government by launching more schemes like mid day meals and giving freebies like laptops to encourage students from economically backward section into the education stream
• ·         Providing scholarships and timely financial help should be made clear that it is not government’s role alone and hence encourage private and financial sector to actively take role in it
• ·         India is a country that yields for incentives, so developing innovative ideas that would benefit the parents economic well being would help in a great way as Indian parents play a crucial role in the education of their ward
• ·         Encourage Public private partnership (PPP) as it is seen as creating innovative models in improving education on par with the global standard
• ·         Create a conducive environment for continuous progress of education by providing regular training and workshops for teachers to enrich and update their knowledge and encourage R&D activities
• ·         Creating an effective regulatory body that overlooks and carries timely inspection to ensure that only quality teachers are appointed

So considering this, education which is seen as a crucial indicator can be used as an input metric which directly affects almost all of the key output metrics mentioned above to measure the progress of India.  A good education produces more literate persons  who turn out to be responsible citizens with more civic and eco awareness safeguarding the environment, choosing the right government to lead and be more conscious while taking decisions to make the world a better place to live. The recent victory of Aam Aadmi in Delhi shows the power of a progressive educated nation.

"Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world". – Nelson Mandela

A country can be truly progressing only when its entire population is happy and content in all aspects. India is seen as a laggard and falls back on this regard. So India really needs to develop an index that measures all the factors that represents the quality and happiness of its citizens. The primary concern of the political leaders of India should shift from industrial development to sustainable development. India can take clue from international agencies such as UNO and OECD that has recently initiated indices like Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) and Your Better Life Index in which various factors that concerns everyone is taken into account. The same way India’s policymakers and economists can join hands with political leaders and develop a similar index that not only measures the economic but also social well being of its people.

The most important thing about developing an index of that sort is that it gives a more reliable and accurate number as it is directly evaluated from the responses of the people by actively engaging the public. A country’s primary assets are its citizens and its natural resources. A large country like India should adopt and insist on a unique index like the ones mentioned above to change and go up on the ladder of real holistic development. India being a diverse country with 29 states is known as united India and can achieve its Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) when each state is given maximum freedom and discretion to formulate and implement its own policies that maximizes the needs of all the economic agents by achieving inclusive and sustainable growth.

A Journey To The Past - The Evolution of Rich Economic Thoughts!

Economics has always been a subject open to continuous development of new ideas and theories that explains the functioning of economic system in every period of time. In simple terms, economics is a subject that studies about the behavior of humans (economic agents) in the market (economy) to meet their various needs with scarce resources. In other words, it is the branch of social science that studies how various economic agents interact with each other in an economy and allocate the scarce resources to meet their unlimited wants. The basic tool of the subject, the theory of demand and supply deals with how households (Consumers) and firms (Producers) function in the market to maximize their respective needs efficiently. This forms the core of economics, which over the period gave rise to different thoughts, as in reality every economy in the world undergoes continuous changes on the path to development and economic prosperity. This fact has led to different schools of thought that describes the various approaches in the history of economic theory.This development of economic theories highlights the fact that economists are free to express their own ideas and act independently and thus some of the ideas proposed by few of these schools are highly debated. In this article, I would like to take all those of you who are surprisingly interested to know the evolution of economic theories to a short trip to the most famous schools of economic thought, major economists of each school and their works.

The Classical School of Economic Thought:   

This is one of the of the oldest school of economic thought and marks the beginning of modern economics. Classical economics also called as political economy was the original form of mainstream economics that developed in the 18th century and predominated till the mid 19th century. The basic idea of the the classical economics is that, it claimed that the markets will regulate themselves and move to equilibrium attaining efficiency without any intervention. Some of the majors of this school of thought whose contributions are still noteworthy in the history of economics are Adam Smith,  Jean Baptiste Say, David Ricardo and Thomas Malthus. Now, a brief look into their work.

Adam Smith (1723-1790)

Adam smith is one of the foremost philosopher turned political economist whose work gave rise to the development of modern economics.Adam smith was born in Kirkaldy, Scotland in 1723. Smith entered University of Glasgow at the age of 14. Then later when he was 17 years old he joined Oxford  and in 1951 he became a professor of logic at Glasgow. The next year he took the chair of philosophy where he started developing keen interest in writing and thus came two of his classic works, The theory of moral sentiments (1759) and An Inquiry Into The Nature And Causes of The Wealth of Nations (1776). The Wealth of Nations is considered as the first modern works of economics.The theory of moral sentiments is his first work, though, The Wealth of Nations is taken to be his most influential work. But according to smith, he considered his first book as his superior work. In his first work, Smith critically examines the modern thinking of his time, and suggests that conscience arises from social relationships. His goal in writing the book was to explain the ability of mankind to make moral judgments, inspite of man's natural inclination towards self interest. Smith proposes the theory of sympathy, in which the act of observing others makes people aware of themselves and the morality of their own behavior. The second book came when the world was actually witnessing the start of the industrial revolution. In his second book, The wealth of Nations he expresses the role of self interest of mankind. In this book, he attempted to state the nature and causes of a nation's prosperity by introducing important concepts such as 'invisibile hand' and 'division of labour.'  The invisible hand explains the self regulating nature of the market to achieve equilibrium. Many economists consider this as the first welfare theorem. The wealth of nations is seen as the most seminal text of free market capitalism. More than two centuries after his death Smith is considered as the " father of modern economics" and still among the most influential thinkers in the field of economics today.

Jean Baptiste Say (1767-1832)

JB Say was a french economist and a businessman. He is best known for his Say's law of market though its origin traces to his predecessor. Though being a greatest economist of his times very little facts are known about his personal and education life. He went to London to pursue his formal education along with his brother who was also an economist. He spent most of his initial years in Geneva and London. After some personal grievances, he returned back to France and was employed in a life assurance company and soon became a pro of free market intellectuals. While talking about the development of the mainstream economics and the history of economic thought, much less importance is given to his varied works. He was hardly recognized for his works in taxes, money & banking, value & utility, entrepreneurs & capitalism. He had liberal views and was in favor of competition and free trade. The Say's law states that supply (aggregate) creates its own demand (aggregate). Say view that a economic glut occurs when there are too many factors of production (Land, labour, capital & entrepreneur) to produce one kind of product and not enough to produce others. Say also viewed that a rational consumer would not hoard money and will be willing to spend all of his money as the value of money varies over a period. The say's approach to economics was more of philosophical and realistic. Say works has got much to say even to a non economist. Say once called economics to be beautiful and above all useful science. But what we got to know, atleast the economists group is that, he left the economics field both more beautifully and more useful than he had found it.

David Ricardo (1772-1823)

David Ricardo was a British political economist and his mostly credited to systematizing economics. He is one of the lead economists of classical economics. He was not just an economist but was also a financier and speculator ( a person who engages in the practice of risky financial transactions in an attempt to profit from short-medium term market fluctuations) who holds a lot of fortune. He is one of the most important economist from the classical school who contributed hugely to the subject and his ideas stand out to be still relevant in the modern day.He was a contributor of wide range of economic theories that is of significant importance in the history of economic thought. Perhaps, his most important contribution was the 'theory of comparative advantage' in which he advocates that a nation should abandon industries in which it is internationally competitive in order to concentrate solely on the industries in which it is most competitive. He referred comparative advantage to the ability of a firm or an individual to produces goods & services at a lower marginal and opportunity cost than others. This theory contrasts with 'the theory absolute advantage' introduced by Adam Smith, where he referred absolute advantage as the ability of a firm, individual or a country to produce more of a particular goods using the same amount of resources. His most famous work was 'The principals of political economy and taxation' (1817) where he introduced the concept of 'labour theory of value' according to which the relative price of two goods is determined by the ratio of the quantities of labour required in their production. Another famous theory of his is the 'Ricardian Equivalence' which is an economic hypothesis stating that the timing of any tax change of the government does not affect the level of consumers spending. It does not matter whether the government finances its expenditures with debt or tax increase, because the level of total demand in the economy is the just the same. Ricardo's attempts to address important economic issues took economics to higher level. He is the one who presented the classical system more clearly than anyone had done before.

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834)

Thomas Malthus was a British political economist who is widely known for his theories about population change. Malthus received his early education at home at Bramcote, Nottinghamshire and then at Warrington Academy from 1782. He then joined Jesus College, Cambridge in 1784. He came into the spotlight with his classic work 'An Essay on The Principal of Population' (1798). The essay gave rise to Malthusian controversy. In his book Malthus proposes that the human population grows exponentially while food production grew simultaneously at a arithmetic rate. He supported this point with relevant empirical data. This deadly scenario of arithmetic food growth along with simultaneous geometric human population growth predicted a future when humans would have no resources for survival. This phenomenal prediction is sometimes called as the 'Malthusian Controversy' which highlights the fact that population growth outpaced agricultural growth. This seems to be so impressive because Malthus proposed this almost two centuries back when the population growth was not as rapid as it is today. If alone Malthus was alive today, he would have been richly awarded for his theory as it is so apt and significant in present day. I think the present day economists and political leaders should rewind and understand the true importance of Malthus theory and try to bring efficient solutions for the growing mismatch between population growth and agricultural growth. Another important term of his is 'Malthusian Trap'  which suggests that for most of human history, income was largely stagnant because technological advances and innovations resulted only in more people, rather than improvements in the standard of living. Malthus also hypothesized unchecked population growth would also lead to social problems. Malthus established the relation between population and economics that when population grows faster than production of food, real wages fall because the growing population causes the cost of living to increase. Though Malthus has not given various theories and holds limited work he is known best for his strong contribution to the field. He is one of the economist belonging to the classical school who got to be remembered by the present and future economists no matter to which school of thought they belong to, after all economics is one single family comprising members of different views and opinions about the happenings of the world.

Neoclassical School of Economic Thought:

When you hear the word neo, dont think about the matrix character played by keanu Reeves as it is very common, atleast among movie lovers to think about the character in the famous science fiction matrix franchise.As the powerful character in the series, the word neo in this context is also quite apt to some extent, for as this is the only school of economics that is widely debated and influential school of economic thought next to the Keynesian. The neoclassical school of economics is one of the most widely dominated modern school of economic thought and constitute the highest number of followers till date mainly due to its modern insight about the subject. The term was first introduced by an american economist, Thorstein Veblen who was also the leader of the institutional economics movement. The neoclassical economics primarily studies about the individual, be it either consumer or producer rational decision making process through the basic supply and demand analysis. It was developed in the late nineteenth century and is also stated as orthodox economics by its critiques as most of the ideas presented by this school is not applicable and deviates from real life situation. Now a peep into the work of some of the notable economists of this school.

Alfred Marshall (1842-1924)

Alfred Marshal is one of the great economists of his time and is one of the founders of economics. He contributed a lot to the field and his theories even today hold a significant importance in the history of economic thought. His most famous work was the 'Principals of economics' published in 1980 which was the dominant textbook in the England for several years. Marshall was born in clapham, England. He graduated from St. John's college, Cambridge and showed a keen interest in mathematics. Most of his work were quantitative in nature and introduced a lot of mathematical insight to economic theories. He rejected economics as the science of wealth and linked it to social welfare. In 1970s when Marshall was residing in USA to study about the economic conditions to gain a clear picture about the functioning of the economy he wrote essays on international trade and theoretical aspects of the economy. His first book was 'The Economics of Industry' which made the him noticed among the economics fraternity. His classic work the principals of economics gave a all together fresh insight to economics particularly, microeconomics (studies about the behavior of consumers, producers, individual firms at the micro level). The book recognized him as the forefront of new economic thinkers. Infact, he was the founder of standard microeconomics and bought neoclassical economics to mainstream economics. He emphasized that both demand and supply as the primary determinant of goods and services. He was the one who initially conceptualized consumer surplus (the difference between what a consumer is willing to pay and what he actually pays) and producer surplus (the difference between the amount the producer receives and the amount which he/she is willing to accept). He also came to the conclusion that the marginal utility (satisfaction) after a point decreases by consuming additional unit of a good (the law of diminishing marginal utility). He also introduced a concept of three periods of business progression. The first stage being where supplies are all fixed, the second stage where capital is fixed and labour is adjusted to change supply, the third stage where all labour becomes variable. He is known for explaining how the economy works towards efficiency and achieves market equilibrium by equating market demand and market supply. Marshall's model allowed a visual representation of complex economic fundamentals where before all the ideas and theories were only being capable of explaining through words. (So students who find economics hard and as a Hercules task because of its rigorous math application and quantitative nature got to blame Marshal for all the difficulties you guys are facing burning the midnight oil...LOL).

Source: Wikipedia